Introducing Section Three: Simulation
A preview of chapters 7 through 9 - Guile, Empathy, and Actionable
When John F. Kennedy announced the “Moon Shot” in his 1962 speech — “We choose to go to the Moon”1 — the United States invested its national wherewithal in the enterprise of landing a man on the surface of another world. We had the best scientific minds of the era on the project. The mathematics said the mission would work.
But none of the astronauts or scientists really knew what the Moon would be like when they set foot on it. No one had ever left the planet before. Human lives were at stake, to say nothing of vast sums of time and money. Setting aside the patriotic pressure to beat the Soviet Union to the lunar surface, NASA had to be absolutely confident in their ability to win.
How would you go about testing the tens of thousands of assumptions and calculations involved in this engineering miracle?
Those on the project simulated the environment and tasks of the mission in the most thorough way they could. They trained astronauts Neil Armstrong, Buzz Aldrin, and Michael Collins in the classroom and in real-life settings at sites around the world.2 The three men were exposed to every possible scenario that might emerge, from the most mundane to the most surprising. By July of 1969, all teammates and stakeholders were confident of the mission’s success, having completed ten prior manned and unmanned Apollo missions that approached the Moon and came back again.
The previous three chapters showed you how to intentionally sacrifice the sub-optimal pathways to winning by selecting only the investment-grade conjecture you believe has the greatest potential to produce superior outcomes. Now, as the Apollo 11 astronauts did prior to their historic launch, you have to determine whether your IGC will perform in the real world the way you thought it would.
Simulation confirms and challenges your expectations by addressing questions like:
What could go wrong?
Why might some of our assumptions be mistaken?
Who might surprise us with an unexpected response?
Where are the unknown “X-factors” hidden from us that will reveal themselves only when other stakeholders engage with our plans?
How will we adapt to changing circumstances now that we’ve been exposed to some of the possibilities?
The final section of this book walks you through the Simulation phase of the Insights-to-Action Supercycle. In this phase, the objective is to test the hypotheses you have around your offer’s investment-grade conjecture. You have confidence, based on your analysis, that the outcomes you anticipated will come to fruition. But you must explore the possibility that alternative outcomes will develop based on the actions of other stakeholders in the landscape.
The next three chapters — Guile, Empathy, and Actionable — show you why these necessary aptitudes of the Simulation process can effectively convert even hostile stakeholders to your side. You’ll unpack the nuances of unifying people to take action and uncover how the right amount of interpersonal friction energizes people to get things done. Successfully emerging from this final phase outfits you to champion your stakeholders and your mission together.
The principal task for both Missionary and Mercenary during Simulation is to understand how to best influence the stakeholders involved. This involves the careful manipulation of relationships. But it’s really about peacemaking. Use your imagination to assign who occupies each way to make peace — extending the olive branch or ending the fight.
Both mindsets must present a friendly face, but the Missionary and Mercenary need not agree on when the use of guile is justified. They both use empathy, but one produces kindness and the other uses it as a weapon. Engaging both mindsets produces an iron-sharpens-iron effect between you and other helpful or hostile stakeholders. Finally, an appropriate amount of interpersonal friction will be a key component in making your IGC actionable.
Simulation isn’t about you as much as it’s about us. Notice throughout Section 3: Simulation how the maxim of “we are smarter than me” breaks down the obstacles in our path and hardens our resolve to win.
References:
John F. Kennedy Presidential Library and Museum, “Address at Rice University on the Nation’s Space Effort,” Rice University, accessed September 29, 2024, https://www.jfklibrary.org/learn/about-jfk/historic-speeches/address-at-rice-university-on-the-nations-space-effort.
Jennifer Nalawicki, “Before Going to the Moon, Apollo 11 Astronauts Trained at These Five Sites,” Smithsonian Magazine, July 17, 2019, https://www.smithsonianmag.com/travel/going-moon-apollo-11-astronauts-trained-these-five-sites-180972452/.